The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy     

Chris Bataille  Henri Waisman  Michel Colombier  Laura Segafredo  Jim Williams  Frank Jotzo 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):S7-S26

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.  相似文献   

Reefs at the edge: coral community structure around Rapa,southernmost French Polynesia          下载免费PDF全文

Mehdi Adjeroud  Carden C. Wallace  Pauline Bosserelle  Claude Payri  Jean‐Louis Menou  Michel Pichon 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(3):565-575

Rapa (27°36′ S, 144°20′ W) is a small (~40 km²) volcanic island isolated in the Southern Austral Archipelago, where direct anthropogenic stressors are extremely limited. Here, we present the results of the first quantitative survey of coral community structure across habitats and depths around the island. Despite its geographical isolation in the depauperate South Central Pacific, its small size and unfavourable environmental conditions (competition with macroalgae, low sea surface temperatures, reduced reef accretion), the diversity of scleractinian corals at Rapa is particularly high (112 species from 32 genera, including 37 species of Acropora) in comparison to other French Polynesian islands and subtropical Pacific locations. Our results indicate that the abundance (>100 colonies per 10 m² recorded at nine of the 17 sampling stations) and cover (>40% at four stations) of corals are relatively high for a marginal reef location. Strong spatial heterogeneity was found, with high variation in diversity, abundance, cover and community composition among stations. Variation in community composition was related to habitat types, with distinct assemblages among fringing reefs within bays, reef formations at bay entrances, and those on the submerged platform surrounding the island. On the platform, a depth gradient was detected, with generic richness, abundance and cover generally greater at deeper stations (18–20 m depth) compared with medium‐depth (10–12 m) and shallow (1–3 m) stations. A gradient was also recorded along bays, with increasing coral diversity and abundance from the bay heads to the bay entrances. The coral community at Rapa was characterized by the presence of several taxa not found in other French Polynesian archipelagos and the rarity of others that are common and abundant in the Society and the Tuamotu islands. Another distinctive feature of reef communities at Rapa is the high cover and dominance of macroalgae, particularly in the shallower parts of the surrounding platform, which probably explains the lower densities of coral colonies recorded there. These characteristics of the diversity and biogeographical composition of coral assemblages at Rapa provide considerable ecological grounds for its conservation.  相似文献   

Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models     

G. M. van Essen  S. Kahrobaei  H. van Oeveren  P. M. J. Van den Hof  J. D. Jansen 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(5):1061-1073

We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV.  相似文献   

Use of targets to track 3D displacements in highly vegetated areas affected by landslides     

Martin Franz  Dario Carrea  Antonio Abellán  Marc-Henri Derron  Michel Jaboyedoff 《Landslides》2016,13(4):821-831

Monitoring landslides with terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is currently a well-known technique. One problem often encountered is the vegetation that produces shadow areas on the scans. Indeed, the points behind a given obstacle are hidden and thus occluded on the point cloud. Thereby, locations monitored with terrestrial laser scanner are mostly rock instabilities and few vegetated landslides, being difficult or even impossible to survey vegetated slopes using this method with its classical non-full wave form. The Peney landslide (Geneva, Switzerland) is partially vegetated by bushes and trees, and in order to monitor its displacements during the drawdown of the Verbois reservoir located at its base, an alternative solution has been found. We combined LiDAR technique with 14 targets made of polystyrene placed at different locations inside and outside the landslide area. The obtained displacements were compared with classical measurement methods (total station and extensometer), showing good resemblance of results, indicating that the use of targets in highly vegetated areas could be an efficient alternative for mass movements monitoring.  相似文献   

Climate and human land-use as a driver of Lake Narlay (Eastern France,Jura Mountains) evolution over the last 1200 years: implication for methane cycle     

Simon Belle  Valérie Verneaux  Laurent Millet  David Etienne  Andrea Lami  Simona Musazzi  Jean-Louis Reyss  Michel Magny 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2016,55(1):83-96

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The effects of migration on <Emphasis Type="Italic">ca.</Emphasis> 100-year-old arsenic-rich mine tailings in Cobalt,Ontario, Canada     

Dale D. Sprague  Frederick A. Michel  Jesse C. Vermaire 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(5):405

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A New Computational Model of High-Order Stochastic Simulation Based on Spatial Legendre Moments     

Lingqing Yao  Roussos Dimitrakopoulos  Michel Gamache 《Mathematical Geosciences》2018,50(8):929-960

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Small shards and long distances — three cryptotephra layers from the Nahe palaeolake including the first discovery of Laacher See Tephra in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)     

Sascha Krüger  Christel van den Bogaard 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(1):8-19

Investigations of Lateglacial to Early Holocene lake sediments from the Nahe palaeolake (northern Germany) provided a high-resolution palynological record. To increase the temporal resolution of the record a targeted search for cryptotephra was carried out on the basis of pollen stratigraphy. Three cryptotephra horizons were detected and geochemically identified as G10ka series tephra (a Saksunarvatn Ash), Vedde Ash and Laacher See Tephra. Here we present the first geochemically confirmed finding of the ash from the Laacher See Eruption in Schleswig-Holstein—extending the so far detected fallout fan of the eruption further to the north-west. These finds enable direct stratigraphical correlations and underline the potential of the site for further investigations.  相似文献   

Resource Model Updating For Compositional Geometallurgical Variables     

Prior  Ángel  Tolosana-Delgado  Raimon  van den Boogaart  K. Gerald  Benndorf  Jörg 《Mathematical Geosciences》2021,53(5):945-968

In the field of mineral resources extraction, one main challenge is to meet production targets in terms of geometallurgical properties. These properties influence the processing of the ore and are often represented in resource modeling by coregionalized variables with a complex relationship between them. Valuable data are available about geometalurgical properties and their interaction with the beneficiation process given sensor technologies during production monitoring. The aim of this research is to update resource models as new observations become available. A popular method for updating is the ensemble Kalman filter. This method relies on Gaussian assumptions and uses a set of realizations of the simulated models to derive sample covariances that can propagate the uncertainty between real observations and simulated ones. Hence, the relationship among variables has a compositional nature, such that updating these models while keeping the compositional constraints is a practical requirement in order to improve the accuracy of the updated models. This paper presents an updating framework for compositional data based on ensemble Kalman filter which allows us to work with compositions that are transformed into a multivariate Gaussian space by log-ratio transformation and flow anamorphosis. This flow anamorphosis, transforms the distribution of the variables to joint normality while reasonably keeping the dependencies between components. Furthermore, the positiveness of those variables, after updating the simulated models, is satisfied. The method is implemented in a bauxite deposit, demonstrating the performance of the proposed approach.

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Modeling and Fitting of Three-Dimensional Mineral Microstructures by Multinary Random Fields     

Teichmann  Jakob  Menzel  Peter  Heinig  Thomas  van den Boogaart  Karl Gerald 《Mathematical Geosciences》2021,53(5):877-904

Mathematical Geosciences - Modeling a mineral microstructure accurately in three dimensions can render realistic mineralogical patterns which can be used for three-dimensional processing...  相似文献